Going all in on totals bets brought back some serious profits last week. Hopefully, we'll keep the good time rolling with three more English Premier League expert picks for matchweek 27.
Here's our three bets from last weekend and the results:
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| O2.5 Villa-Forest | -165 |
| U2.5 Brighton-Everton | +120 |
| O3.5 Arsenal-Newcastle | +125 |
| Overall Record | 5-1 |
| Profits (Units) | +5.65 |
English Premier League Expert Picks Matchweek 27
Luton Town vs Aston Villa
The Game: Luton Town vs Aston Villa, Saturday, March 2, 12:30 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Luton Town | +340 | O3.5 (+110) |
| Aston Villa | -145 | O3.5 (-135) |
| Draw | +260 |
Pick: O3.5 (+110)
Books are crazily giving plus-money odds for O3.5 goals in this game. Luton has seen OVER 3.5 goals in four of their last five and eight times in their last 12. For Villa, they are 3-2 vs the OVER in their last five and 6-4 in their last 10.
Now, don't forget Villa is hitting the OVER because they're scoring most of the goals with a 12-5 scoring differential in their last five. The opposite is true for Luton. They're allowing a bunch of goals with a 13-11 goal differential.
I'm taking the OVER even if the odds say it's risky.
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool
The Game: Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool, Saturday, 10 AM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | +475 | O3.5 (+125) |
| Liverpool | -190 | U3.5 (-155) |
| Draw | +370 |
Pick: Liverpool ML (-190)
I'm going chalk here with Liverpool on the moneyline. Even with their insane list of injuries, Liverpool are winning games. Their youth took out Chelsea in the League Cup final and then breezed past Southampton in the F.A. Cup.
Forest has massive defensive issues. Even an injured Liverpool squad should be able to see the trees through the forest and get the win.
Manchester City vs Manchester United
The Game: Manchester City vs Manchester United, Sunday, March 3, 10:30 AM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Man City | -390 | O3.5 (-105) |
| Man United | +950 | U3.5 (-120) |
| Draw | +550 |
Pick: U3.5 (-120)
I'm with the oddsmakers here. I don't believe that Manchester United can win this game. Not with the list of injuries they have at the moment. Meanwhile, City is just getting healthy with De Bruyne and Haaland finally back to match-day speed.
Pep's men have been better defensive play lately (three clean sheets from their last five) has seen the total go UNDER 3.5 goals in each of their last five games in the league. I know United have done basically the opposite but City will dictate the game meaning this won't be a shootout with chances galore at both sides. It's going to be one-way traffic with Haaland likely making the difference
