Premier League Golden Boot Odds: Erling Haaland’s Award To Lose, Already

By September, Manchester City's Erling Haaland had effectively locked up the Premier League Golden Boot title with 10 goals to his name. An insane level of production. Production that would continue through the season.

With 36 goals in the campaign, Haaland locked up the Golden Boot title, but it got close with Tottenham's Harry Kane scoring 30.

Can the young Haaland win a second scoring title? The early odds suggest it's his to lose. Man City's young talent is at the top of the odds board with -135 odds. Challenger Harry Kane is second at +750.

Premier League Golden Boot Odds

Odds as of July 31

EPL Golden Boot Favorite: Erling Haaland, Obvious Choice

With 36 goals in 35 games, Haaland scored over one goal per game. At the Premier League level, that's incredible. We've never seen this kind of goal-scoring at the Prem. Not even the greats like Alan Cole, Wayne Rooney or Alan Shearer can match Haaland's goal-scoring rate from 22-23. 

Haaland's 28.4 expected goals exceed anyone else in the league (Salah was second at 21.7). His 0.92 expected goals per 90 are, again, better than anyone else (Callum Wilson is second at 0.84). And his conversation rate of goals per shot at 0.25 was below only Taiwo Awoniyi, Jadon Sancho and Roberto Firmino. Neither of those three played nearly as much as Haaland and his 33 starts.

There is no reason to think Erling Haaland's goal-scoring will slow down in 23-24. 

So long as Pep Guardiola is guiding Manchester City's hand, and the Citizen's have those rich owners, they'll be favored to perform as well as they've done recently. Remember, City has now won three titles in a row and five in the last six seasons. 

Haaland is the obvious choice to win the Golden Boot. You'd be foolish to think otherwise. 

Best Value for Premier League Golden Boot

Erling Haaland is likely going to win the Golden Boot. Odds makers are giving him a 58% chance to do so. Can anyone else in the Prem stop him?

Harry Kane (+750)

I'm not going to waste much digital ink here, but I would fade Harry Kane. While a transfer has not yet been completed, it really seems as if Harry Kane will be moving to Bayern Munich.

Bayern bosses are back in Munich now! #Kane

➡️ As reported and expected: No agreement today! Negotiations ongoing! @SkySport_Ben | @SkySportDE 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 https://t.co/Q21ofcVUMi

— Florian Plettenberg (@Plettigoal) July 31, 2023

I firmly believe that Harry Kane has played his last Premier League game. There's no way he wins the 2024 Golden Boot.

Darwin Nunez (+1800)

Liverpool's young forward struggled last year, only scoring nine goals in 19 starts. But if the pre-season means anything, the Uruguayan has hit a fresh vein of form and seems unstoppable.

Darwin Nunez has been on fire in preseason 🔥 pic.twitter.com/t9L2t51ZVo

— ESPN UK (@ESPNUK) July 31, 2023

There's a reason Liverpool paid Benfica $79 million for the striker; he's absolutely lethal in front of goal. 

Even though he struggled last year, Nunez's 0.74 non-penalty expected goals per game are in the 99th percentile for forwards in the top 5 leagues with at least 2,100 minutes played. FB Reference lists his most comparable forward as Barcelona's Robert Lewandowski.

With Liverpool reshaping their midfield thanks to the addition of Alexis MacAllister and Dominik Szoboszlai they may unlock a once-potent offense and Nunez could be the chief recipient. 

Christopher Nkunku (+1600)

Nkunku is a heck of a player. In his last two seasons with RB Leipzig, the young Frenchman scored 36 goals in 51 matches. A production rate that's just above the 30.5 expected goals he created. Elite players will score more than they create.

I don't believe Chelsea will finish anywhere near the top of the table or even in the top four, but if I'm wrong, and Mauricio Pochettino can get this group working as a cohesive unit Nkunku could easily produce at the top end of the goal scoring table. 

Last 10 English Premier League Golden Boot Winners

Harry Kane has really dominated the Golden Boot Award in the past decade. He's won it three times. Only Thierry Henry has won more Premier League top scorer awards with four. 

If Kane's time is indeed done in the Premier League he will be remembered as one of the best goal-scorers to have ever played.